Drought and Production Capacity of Meat; A System Dynamics Approach

The persisting drought in Iran, where the livestock are mostly fed by natural pastorlands, has caused a higher rate of sheep slaughter, thus an increase in the supply of meat and a reduction of the price in the Summer 2008. On the other hand, the higher slaughter diminished the available level of the cattle which in turn reduced the production capacity of the following year. This is inherent and unique to this production sector that the production capacity depends on the inventory. This study, based on a modified supply chain dynamic model, indicates that the short term effect of drought is a lower meat price; however, in the coming season a sudden increase in the price should be expected. It can be concluded that using right policies, such as importing provender, could save the hardly recoverable production capacity of the country.